(CNN) -- The defeat of French President Nicholas
Sarkozy at the hands of Francois Hollande has the potential to greatly
affect European politics and the future of the euro, as many have noted.
But the election of the first French Socialist president since 1995
also could dramatically change France's role in the world, at a
particularly sensitive time.
No doubt both sides of
the Atlantic will keep a close eye on the rhetoric and actions of the
new French leader in the days ahead.
Almost from the outset,
Hollande will be in the international spotlight, with the G-8 meeting at
Camp David, Maryland, and the NATO Summit in Chicago less than two
weeks away, and a G-20 meeting scheduled for June in Mexico City.
The NATO alliance faces a
complex transition in Afghanistan. The international community is
dealing with an increasingly untenable situation in Syria and may soon
have to contemplate military action. And while the nuclear crisis with
Iran is at an ebb, it is by no means over.
There are already strong
signals that a Hollande administration will bring more change than
continuity. Sarkozy, while not a Gaullist, sought to restore French
national pride based on France's role as a leader in the international
community. His efforts were most notable in his participation in the
NATO operations in Libya.
Hollande's advisers have stated that the new leader is likely to
announce an accelerated timetable for French withdrawal from Afghanistan
that could bring all French troops home by the end of this year. While
the operational impact of the early removal of all 3,300 French troops
could be addressed with some effort, there may be greater political
fallout from the French rejection of the principle of "in together, out
together," especially given the lack of public support for the Afghan
mission throughout Europe.
The president-elect's advisers have also claimed the new leader has
reservations about Sarkozy's support of increased participation in NATO,
specifically the French decision to rejoin NATO's military command
structure.
Jean-Yves Le Drian, a key adviser to Hollande and a potential defense
minister, is reported to have said that Hollande would demand a greater
decision-making role for France within NATO. But France cannot, of
course, have its cake and eat it too.
rench participation in
both Afghanistan and Libya has been significant -- but equivocation
regarding NATO commitments will make requests for increased authority
ring hollow to other alliance members. Rather, if France is to have a
greater say, then Hollande must be willing to put alliance interests
ahead of national interests from time to time.
Still, Hollande has also
intimated that he could take a more pragmatic approach and understands
that French actions could have practical and symbolic impacts that might
detract from French standing in the world.
He is a career
politician and no doubt understands the downside of placing France at
odds with its allies unnecessarily at a time when concerted action by
the trans-Atlantic powers on economic and security issues could not be
more important. Indeed, President-elect Hollande's advisers say his No. 1
foreign policy priority will be helping to revive Europe's economy.
No doubt, the economy
will be the driving issue during the U.S. general election, and
political pundits will be considering whether the Sarkozy defeat holds
lessons for voters who will go to the polls this autumn.
Just as in France, there
is no shortage of voter anger with incumbents, and the low approval
rating for Congress suggests we may see new faces on Capitol Hill in
January.
Likewise, the United
States faces important policy challenges on health care, immigration,
and of course taxation and spending. But beyond that, the dynamics of
French and American politics part ways.
Indeed, for the United
States it will largely be the Hollande policy agenda that matters more
-- not the political circumstances under which he gained office.
In a world rife with
instability and faced with a fragile economic recovery, there will
remain an imperative for effective alliances, forward-looking foreign
policy, and strong and internationally respected leadership.
Hollande may wish to be a
leader singularly focused on French and European economic needs, but
success in these matters may rest on his initial ability not only to
find a balance between politics and policy, but to demonstrate that he
can work effectively with his fellow world leaders.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Mark R. Jacobson.
source: cnn
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