The world suddenly seemed a lot smaller when news broke Tuesday that
the first person diagnosed with Ebola in the U.S. is being isolated and
treated at a Dallas hospital.
While the outbreak in West Africa
has sickened more than 6,000 people and killed 3,083, it was only a
matter of time before the virus hit closer to home, experts said.
Dr. Edward Goodman, hospital epidemiologist at Texas Health
Presbyterian Hospital, said he was not surprised that the Ebola virus
came to his doorstep, given the number of cases in Africa.
There is “plenty of opportunity for people to fly over and come to any part of the United States,” he told reporters Tuesday.
Other experts agree that it was inevitable for the Ebola virus to
spread beyond Africa. Given the unprecedented scale of the virus’
outbreak in West Africa, at least a handful of imported cases were
expected to arrive in other countries.
But many predicted that the
Ebola virus would reach another country before the U.S. Using
mathematical models to predict how infectious diseases spread, experts
at Northeastern University ranked the top 15 countries where Ebola could
emerge next.
The United Kingdom ranked third on that list, second only to the
African nations of Ghana and Gambia. The U.S. had a much lower
probability of having an imported Ebola case.
Still, Dr. Gerardo
Chowell, an associate professor at Arizona State University and an
expert in modeling infectious diseases, wasn’t surprised. “It’s just a
matter of probabilities,” he said.
Chowell has focused on predicting the spread of the epidemic in Africa, especially Nigeria.
Rate of infection
A key factor in the spread of infectious diseases is the number of people a sick person can infect.
If that number, known as the basic reproduction number, or R0, is
less than one, it’s unlikely the disease will spread. If it’s greater
than one, there’s potential for a large outbreak.
In the case of
Ebola, R0 has been documented to range from 1.3 to 1.8, depending on
factors such as population density and how quickly cases are diagnosed
and isolated.
The R0 for Ebola is a lot lower than for other illnesses such as
measles, whose R0 is 18. But factors such as fear, an inadequate number
of health care workers and abject poverty in parts of West Africa are
fueling the spread of the virus there.
That situation is different
in Dallas. “This is not Africa,” Dallas County Health and Human
Services Director Zachary Thompson told reporters. “We have a great
public health infrastructure to deal with this type of disease.”
The opportunity for infectious diseases like Ebola to go global has
increased with international air travel — and Dallas and Houston are
major hubs.
There is a direct daily flight from Lagos, Nigeria,
to George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston. More than 71,000
people have traveled nonstop from Africa to that airport in the past
year, according to the Houston Airport System. Many more passengers may
have traveled to and from Africa on flights that connected in Europe and
the Middle East.
There is no direct flight from a city in Africa to Dallas/Fort Worth
International Airport. But D/FW saw nearly 7 million international
passengers last year.
Quarantine facilities at these airports
could be used to isolate travelers with symptoms of Ebola. But so far,
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has not asked airports to
adopt special measures as they did with Middle East Respiratory
Syndrome earlier this year.
‘We’re prepared’
Dr. Tom Frieden, director of
the CDC, and other public health officials maintain that Americans
should have faith in the U.S. public health system. He told reporters
that spread of the disease in Dallas is not expected because of early
isolation of the patient.
President Barack Obama had met with the director at CDC headquarters in Atlanta two weeks ago.
At
that time, the president offered assurances that the outbreak could be
contained. “In the unlikely event that someone with Ebola does reach our
shores,” he said, “we’ve taken new measures so that we’re prepared here
at home.
“We’re working to help flight crews identify people who are sick and
more labs across our country now have the capacity to quickly test for
the virus. We’re working with hospitals to make sure that they are
prepared and to ensure that our doctors, our nurses and our medical
staff are trained, are ready, and are able to deal with a possible case
safely.”
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